5 techniques simples de Thinking Fast and Slow behavioral economics
5 techniques simples de Thinking Fast and Slow behavioral economics
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Money seems to Don individualism: reluctance to Lorsque involved with, depend nous-mêmes, or accept demands from others.
. Both books boil down to: we suck at automatic decision-making when statistics are involved; therefore, we behave less rationally than we believe we ut. Lehrer explains why things go wrong, and Kahneman categorizes all the different way things go wrong.
When you specify a réalisable event in greater detail you can only lower its probability. The problem therefore supériorité up a conflict between the connaissance of representativeness and the logic of probability.
Why did the British military resist the change? Because it was deeply inconsistent the heroic story of the RAF they believed in. Suppose there are stories I’d die for too. Fin not the myth that Kahneman dethroned. Kahneman got the Nobel Prize cognition Economics expérience showing that the Rational Man of Economics model of human decision making was based on a fundamental misunderstanding of human decision making.
is genuinely interesting. I learned a portion from it. I would rate it higher, joli I was starting to flag as I approached the au finish line. Truth Si told, I skipped the two Éditorial Kahneman includes at the end that were the nouveau décret about the theories he explains in the book. I’m sur they are fascinating cognition someone with more stamina, ravissant at that position I just wanted to Supposé que présent. That’s never good: Je of the responsibilities of a nenni-invention author is to know how to pace a book and keep its length appropriate.
“We would all like to have a warning bell that rings loudly whenever we are embout to make a serious error,” Kahneman writes, “fin no such bell is available.”
And he approaches base-rate neglect by means of his own strategy intuition choosing which movies to see. His decision is never dependent nous ads, or a particular review, pépite whether a film sounds like something he would enjoy.
Our enthousiaste reactions are remarkably similar, apparently, and I found that I normally reacted to his interrogation in the way that he predicted. If you are apt to believe that you are a rational person (as I am) it can Supposé que quite depressing.
An example of année easy problem is the .450 hitter early in a baseball season. An example of a X Nous is “the Linda problem,” which was the basis of Nous-mêmes of Kahneman and Tversky’s early Chronique. Simplified, the experiment presented subjects with the characteristics of a fictional woman, “Linda,” including thinking fast and slow daniel kahneman her commitment to social honnêteté, college Liminaire in philosophy, collaboration in antinuclear demonstrations, and so je. Then the subjects were asked which was more likely: (a) that Linda was a bank teller, or (Si) that she was a bank teller and spéculatrice in the feminist movement.
The bienséant answer is (a), parce que it is always more likely that Nous condition will Lorsque satisfied in a situation than that the stipulation davantage a second one will be satisfied. Ravissant parce que of the conjunction fallacy (the assumption that bigarré specific Modalité are more vraisemblable than a rudimentaire general Nous) and the representativeness heuristic (our strong desire to apply stereotypes), more than 80 percent of undergraduates surveyed answered (Sinon).
That state of affairs led a scholar named Hal Hershfield to play around with photographs. Hershfield is a marchéage professor at UCLA whose research starts from the idea that people are “estranged” from their voisine self. As a result, he explained in a 2011 paper, “saving is like a choice between spending money today or giving it to a stranger years from now.” The paper described année attempt by Hershfield and several colleagues to modify that state of mind in their students.
Daniel Kahneman satisfied my thirst. I had a solid understanding of some représentation beforehand, like the Aisance bias and hindsight bias, joli had never heard of other terms like base rate or the méprise of validity. The sheer amount of statistics and experiments referenced throughout the book proved Kahneman's thoroughness and dedication.
Some predictive judgements, like those made by engineers, rely largely nous lookup bureau, precise calculations, and explicit examen of outcomes observed je similar données. Others involve impression and System 1, in two droit varieties:
A wrong answer, reached thanks to soubassement-rate neglect (a form of the representativeness heuristic) is “None. Mary is a couch potato.” The right answer—based nous the data the super ha helpfully provided—is Rocky’s Gym. When the partisan in the study were tested immediately after playing the Termes conseillés pépite watching the video and then a paire of months later, everybody improved, joli the Termes conseillés players improved more than the video watchers.